I’ve said it before. It’s not enough to present data clearly and beautifully. If we want the brains of our staff members, board members, policymakers, donors, and clients to absorb data AND use it for decision-making, we have to present it in brain-friendly ways. And brain-friendly means avoiding common brain glitches. I’ve talked about how our brains glitch when dealing with small numbers.
The pandemic has brought to the fore another known issue with our brains. They glitch when confronted with exponential growth. And, as a result, we make the wrong decisions. The good news is that we can learn from this problem. And this learning can benefit our causes and organizations well past the pandemic. Let me walk you through this in the remaining 50 seconds.
We default to LINEAR not EXPONENTIAL growth. Linear growth means that something is growing by the same amount at each time step. Your hair, for example, grows about a half inch each month. Exponential growth is different. It means that something is growing in proportion to its current value, such as doubling at each time step.
Here’s a common example that reveals the glitch: Would you prefer to receive:
$1,000 a day for the next 30 days or
1 cent on the first day, 2 cents on the second day, 4 cents on the third day, 8 cents on the fourth day and so on for 30 days?
Given a short time to consider, most folks choose option 1 in which the linear growth results in $30,000. But in option 2, the exponential growth results in over $5 million!
Most of us have heard that COVID grows at an exponential rate. And we probably understand what that means: if one person infects two others and then each of those people infect two others, the number of infections is doubling at each time step. But we fail to appreciate the impact of exponential growth and thus fail to choose the wisest actions when faced with an exponential growth problem or opportunity. For example, there is evidence that those who underestimate the effect of exponential growth on the spread of the virus are less likely to take precautions like social distancing and wearing masks.
We can (sometimes) overcome the glitch with a nudge. There is also evidence that simple nudges can help people to better estimate the impact of exponential growth. Nudges can include showing raw numbers instead of graphs or reminding people that the number of cases doubles at each step rather than grows at a constant rate or asking people to do the math to more clearly see the effect of doubling. It’s important to note, however, that there is also research suggesting that our brains can be pretty resistant corrections.
What does this mean for your organization? Exponential growth crops up in regular, non-pandemic life more often than you’d think. If your organization is dealing with issues as diverse as food spoilage, human population growth, invasive species, forest fires, or cancer, then you need a way to effectively communicate exponential growth. To deal with this glitch you can:
Turn to the research. Look for studies that tested ways to correct glitches and then apply the effective ones to your work.
Test your data presentations before they go live. It may sound simple, but it’s a step few of us take. Identify a few people with a similar level of expertise in the subject matter and data as those in your target audience. Then ask them what they think the data in your presentation shows. Perhaps show them a few versions of the same data in different types of charts or tables and see which ones are easiest to process quickly and accurately. But don’t stop there. Ask what actions they might consider based on their interpretations. Then use their responses to revise and test again.
Ask rather than tell. You can engage your stakeholders while also nudging them toward greater understanding. Ask them how soon they think a particular problem will grow to a particular size if left unchecked. If their answer is off the mark, you’ve got their attention. Now explain how the problem is growing exponentially.
To see past data tips, click HERE.
Let’s talk about YOUR data!
Got the feeling that you and your colleagues would use your data more effectively if you could see it better? Data Viz for Nonprofits (DVN) can help you get the ball rolling with an interactive data dashboard and beautiful charts, maps, and graphs for your next presentation, report, proposal, or webpage. Through a short-term consultation, we can help you to clarify the questions you want to answer and goals you want to track. DVN then visualizes your data to address those questions and track those goals.
